Tuesday, August 01, 2006
Gutterballz
Random rants while still wondering what Dave Littlefield could have possibly demanded in return for Kip Wells to make Theo walk away.................
Do you think that around 8:30 last night (right about the time David Wells was giving up his 8th run in 4+ innings) Johny Henry called up George Steinbrenner and conceded the division, only to call him back two hours later after the Ortiz home run:
Steinbrenner - "Let me make sure I understand. You're calling me back to retract your concession?"
Henry - "You don't have to get snippy about it......Let me explain something, your younger brother is not the ultimate authority on this."
(comparing Steinbrenner and Henry to Bush and Gore..........good times)
Anyone else think Trot Nixon faked an arm injury so he wouldn't suffer the embarrasment of being traded at the deadline?
Wily Mo Pena has as many home runs in his last three at bats as Trot Nixon does in his last three weeks.
Which GM will be stupid enough to give Kyle Lohse a 3 year $18 million contract this offseason after he goes 6-1 with a 3.45 ERA down the stretch for the Reds? I'll say Jim Bowden.
Theo Epstein reminds me of that pathetic owner in fantasy baseball that everyone hates because he has an unwholesome attachment to the players he drafted, but still makes trade attempts by offering various combinations of waiver wire fodder.
John Schuerholtz: "OK we'll give you Andruw Jones for John Lester, Craig Hansen and Coco Crisp."
Theo Epstein: "I'll give you Rudy Seanez and David Pauley."
John Schuerholtz: "You know you can turn around a trade Andruw to Houston for Roy Oswalt right?"
Theo Epstein: "Fine, Seanez, Pauley and Kaston Gabbard."
If Theo Esptein was Scott Baio, his signing of David Ortiz would be the equivalent of Baio's getting the lead role in "Charles in Charge." Just inexplicable dumb luck leading to what is (incorrectly) percieved to be a successful career.
Not to pile on Theo Epstein too much, but when Kyle Snyder is prominently involved in your best move of the past year, well that's not a good thing.
Now I am piling on, but has there ever been a GM worse than Theo Epstein at signing free agent relievers? If Theo had his way, the Sox pen would comprise of: Rudy Seanez, Julian Tavarez, Chad Fox, Ramiro Mendoza, Jermaine Van Buren and Alan Embree, with BK Kim and Keith Foulke fighting over who gets to be closer. I mean would any lead be safe? Would that team be better off saving the money and just setting up a pitching machine?
Do you think that around 8:30 last night (right about the time David Wells was giving up his 8th run in 4+ innings) Johny Henry called up George Steinbrenner and conceded the division, only to call him back two hours later after the Ortiz home run:
Steinbrenner - "Let me make sure I understand. You're calling me back to retract your concession?"
Henry - "You don't have to get snippy about it......Let me explain something, your younger brother is not the ultimate authority on this."
(comparing Steinbrenner and Henry to Bush and Gore..........good times)
Anyone else think Trot Nixon faked an arm injury so he wouldn't suffer the embarrasment of being traded at the deadline?
Wily Mo Pena has as many home runs in his last three at bats as Trot Nixon does in his last three weeks.
Which GM will be stupid enough to give Kyle Lohse a 3 year $18 million contract this offseason after he goes 6-1 with a 3.45 ERA down the stretch for the Reds? I'll say Jim Bowden.
Theo Epstein reminds me of that pathetic owner in fantasy baseball that everyone hates because he has an unwholesome attachment to the players he drafted, but still makes trade attempts by offering various combinations of waiver wire fodder.
John Schuerholtz: "OK we'll give you Andruw Jones for John Lester, Craig Hansen and Coco Crisp."
Theo Epstein: "I'll give you Rudy Seanez and David Pauley."
John Schuerholtz: "You know you can turn around a trade Andruw to Houston for Roy Oswalt right?"
Theo Epstein: "Fine, Seanez, Pauley and Kaston Gabbard."
If Theo Esptein was Scott Baio, his signing of David Ortiz would be the equivalent of Baio's getting the lead role in "Charles in Charge." Just inexplicable dumb luck leading to what is (incorrectly) percieved to be a successful career.
Not to pile on Theo Epstein too much, but when Kyle Snyder is prominently involved in your best move of the past year, well that's not a good thing.
Now I am piling on, but has there ever been a GM worse than Theo Epstein at signing free agent relievers? If Theo had his way, the Sox pen would comprise of: Rudy Seanez, Julian Tavarez, Chad Fox, Ramiro Mendoza, Jermaine Van Buren and Alan Embree, with BK Kim and Keith Foulke fighting over who gets to be closer. I mean would any lead be safe? Would that team be better off saving the money and just setting up a pitching machine?
Monday, July 31, 2006
All hail Papi
Thank God for David Ortiz!
Thursday, July 27, 2006
The 323 - Preseason All Americans
Quarterback: Brady Quinn, Sr. Notre Dame
While I have been accused of having a flair for the dramatic (perhaps evidenced by my preseason ranking of Auburn #1), this selection is as pedstrian as they come. By no means do I intend to denigrate Mr. Quinn with this statement. If anything, it should be viewed as laudatory, serving notice that he is so far superior to all other quarterbacks in the nation so as to remove all doubt as to the 1st team all America selection. Brady Quinn is a prototypical NFL quarterback. He has the size to stand in the pocket, the arm to make every throw, and the intelligence to know where, and perhaps more importantly when, to deliver the football. With two years directing an NFL style offense under the tutelage of Charlie Weis, we may be looking at the most NFL ready college quarterback since Peyton Manning.
NFL Comparison - Jim Kelly
Runner Up - Drew Stanton, Sr. Michigan State
Stanton is my favorite college QB. His toughness, mobility, and improvisation reminds me of Matt Hasselbeck. He thrives against the best competition, and revels in carrying his team.
Running Back: Adrien Peterson, Jr. Oklahoma
Another essential position, another obvious selection. To be perfectly blunt, Peterson is the most natural rusher I have ever seen. Every run of his is a work of art, whether it's a short burst up the middle, or Oklahoma's patented stretch sweep which he runs better than anyone this side of Larry Johnson. Peterson is so fluid on the field, and plays the game so effortlessly that even a football novice would recognize his greatness almost immediately. Sure Peterson has the size and the speed, but more importantly he has a seemingly preternatural understanding of the running back position. Not only does Peterson have the vision and patience to wait for a play to develop, but he has the instincts to delay his cut or slightly alter his route to the hole to give his blockers better angles on defenders. Despite his tremendous size (6'2'') and powerful build (220 lbs.), Peterson has the ability to never get hit squarely by a defender and avoid most of the punishment that shortens the careers of tall backs (see George, Eddie; Campbell, Earl). Should he enter the NFL draft after this season, he would most likely be the number one pick overall.
NFL Comparison - Eric Dickerson
Runner Up - Garrette Wolfe, Sr. Northern Illinois
With all due respect to the more talented backs like Marshawn Lynch, Steve Slaton, and Michael Bush, I have to give some love to the MAC and it's best (and perhaps littlest) player. Wolfe is a Warrick Dunn clone, though he does not catch as many passes as the Seminole great.
Wide Receivers: Dwayne Jarrett, Jr. USC; Jeff Samardzjia, Sr. Notre Dame
Assuming he is academically eligible to play, Jarrett might be the best overall offensvie player in the country not named Peterson. Jarrett is a massive target (6'5'') and as physical a receiver as there is in the country. His stature and production beg comparisons to former USC receiver Mike Williams, although Jarrett's production and work ethic in his two seasons for the men of Troy indicate that he is a far better NFL prospect. Though he has had some off the field issues this offseason, between the lines Jarrett is everything a coach could want and plays hard on every down (as evidenced by his excellence as a downfield blocker). It will be interesting to see how Jarrett performs without his partner in crime Matt Leinart, although he and alter-ego Steve Smith could make me look decent at QB.
NFL Comparison - Michael Irvine
Samardzjia is another huge target (6'5'', 220 lbs.) who is coming off a wildly productive 2005 season. Unlike Jarrett, Samardzjia was resigned to the bench for his first two seasons in South Bend before exploding as a junior. As such, he is not nearly as polished as Jarrett when it comes to route running and reading defensive backs. However, Samardzjia is just as physical going after the ball as Jarrett is, and may possess the best hands in all of college football. Because he lacks elite speed, Samardzjia is at his best against zone defenses and may open his NFL career as a slot reciever. However, the more he plays the more he will learn to use his size against smaller defensive backs in man coverage and truly become a complete reciever.
NFL Comparison - Cris Carter
Runner Up - Calvin Johnson, Jr. Georgia Tech
A better blend of size (6'4'', 235 lbs.) and speed (4.4) than either Jarrett or Samardzjia, Johnson just misses because he has not produced as consistently as either. That said, physically he projects as the best NFL prospect, although his inconsistency begs the question of whether he is more Terrell Owens, or JJ Stokes.
Tight End: Joe Newton, Sr. Oregon State
While Juniors Zach Miller (Arizona State) and Greg Olsen (Miami) get most of the attention, it is Newton who is the most complete TE in the nation. Newton was outstanding as a Sophomore catching 56 balls for 687 yards and 7 touchdowns, but seems to get lost in the shufle of promising tight ends because he missed all of last season with a leg injury. Newton is massive at 6'7'' and 260 lbs. He does not have great speed, but he catches everything thrown his way and is a better blocker than most tackles. Newton will never put up eye popping combine numbers like Vernon Davis or Tony Gonzalez, but he is the type of player that winning teams rely on.
NFL Comparison - Dave Casper
Runner up - Brian Leonard, Sr. Rutgers
Technically Leonard is a fullback, but he deserves mention on this all America team. A rugged runner with deceptive speed, Leonard contributes in every aspect of the game (blocking, running, and catching). He executes screen passes as well as anyong since Keith Byars.
Tackles: Joe Thomas, Sr. Wisconsin; Levi Jones, Sr. Penn State
Thomas is a prototypical left tackle with his 6'8'' frame, and long arms to keep defensive lineman away from his body. He is a shade over 300 pounds, but is not really an overpowering run blocker in the mold of an Anthony Munoz. Thomas has outstanding balance and footwork which helps him excel in pass protection, the most important trait for the man guarding the quarterback's blind side. A former defensive lineman, Thomas knows all the defensive techniques and pass rush moves, and he has the instincts to anticipate counter moves and defensive line stunts. Joe Thomas projects as a long term left tackle in the NFL.
NFL Comparison - Gary Zimmerman
Whereas Joe Thomas should be described as more of a technician, Levi Jones in an old school road paver at left tackle. At 6'5'' 330 lbs., Jones is one of the biggest and most powerful lineman in America. While he lacks Thomas' elite pass protection skills, Jones is a true mauler in the running game who can hold his own against the best pass rushers in the nation. As the lone returning starter along the offensive line, Jones will be asked to carry the load for the Nittany Lions this season. Jones projects as a capable left tackle in the NFL, though his size and lack of ideal footwork may cause him to struggle against the new bread of NFL speed rushing ends/linebackers. I would not be suprised to see Jones shift to the right tackle spot where he can used his power and nastiness to dominate in the running game.
NFL Comparison - Jon Runyan
Runner Up - Justin Blalock, Sr. Texas
Blalock is a bit overrated in my opinion, but still remains one of the top lineman in the nation. He is big and strong, but struggles in space like almost all recent Texas o-lineman (see Davis, Leonard; Williams, Mike). Blalock will most likely have to play guard in the NFL but projects similar to former Longhorn Leonard Davis.
Guards: Josh Beekman, Sr. Boston College; Mike Jones, Sr. Iowa
Like all BC lineman, Beekman is a poweful, nasty, and smart blocker. While many believe his permanent position is center, I love Beekman as a long term left guard in the NFL. While Beekman is an outstanding run blocker, what makes him a top flight prospect are his left tackle caliber pass protection skills. At 325 lbs., Beekman is strong enough to stalemate even the most powerful defensive tackles, and he possesses uncanny balance and footwork for a guard.
NFL Comparison - Chris Snee
Jones is not quite as powerful as Beekman (who is), but at 308 lbs. he is certainly no slouch. Jones' best attribute is his intelligence, as he lined up at both tackle spots for the Hawkeyes last season before settling at guard. While it is possible that Jones could play tackle in the NFL, he should be a dominant guard, capable of playing in any system. Look for Jones to start from day 1 in the NFL, as he has been the beneficiary of four years of coaching from one of the best offensive line coaches on the planet in Iowa head man Kirk Ferentz.
NFL Comparison - Mike Wahle
Runner Up - Ken Quarterman, Sr. Louisville
My favorite O-Lineman in the nation, Qarterman is dominant inside at 6'5'' and 336 lbs. Easily the best straight ahead run blocker in the nation, Quarterman projects as an NFL right guard in the mold of former Viking David Dixon.
Center: Dan Mozes, Sr. West Virginia
While there are no truly dominant centers in America this season, Mozes gets the nod based on his consistency and leadership. Mozes has been a four year starter for the mountaineers, and is excellent in space taking on quicker linebackers. At only 290 lbs. Mozes can struggle at times with more powerful defenders. While he has played some guard for Rich Rodriguez in the past, Mozes is much more suited for the center position where he can sift through at the point of attack and take on scraping linebackers.
NFL Comparison - Mark Stepnoski
Runner Up - Ryan Kalil, Sr. USC
Another veteran leader, Kalil is a technically sound center who does not possess incredible natural power or explosion. However, he has bulked up to 285 lbs. and his coaches love his wortk ethic and intelligence. He looks like a late round pick who could find himself as an NFL starter by the end of his rookie season. His profile fits that of a Dan Koppen type.
Defensive Ends: Gaines Adams, Sr. Clemson; Adam Carriker, Sr. Nebraska
At 6'3'' and 265 lbs. Adams is the prototypical college "tweener". Lucky for him, he plays on a loaded Clemson front seven, which allows the coaching staff to move him between end and linebacker (technically called the "bandit" position). Adams is a pure disrupter, posting 55 tackles and 9.5 sacks last season. His 15 tackles for a loss and 29 quarterback pressures in 2005 evidence his adept ability to play on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. Because of his smallish frame and outstanding speed, Adams projects as a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL. Though he will need to learn to play more consistently in pass coverage, there is little doubt that he has the speed, quickness, and agility to develope into a top flight curl-flat defender.
NFL Comparison - Roosevelt Colvin
Though not blessed with the pure talent of Adams, Carriker is a far more complete defensive end, and one of the best all around defensive players in the nation. Not only is Carriker one of the best pass rushers in the Big 12 (9.5 sacks in 2005), but he is also stout against the run. Built like an offensive tackle, Carriker stands 6'6'' and 295 lbs. He is exceptional at leveraging his body and maintaining the outside by keeping offensive lineman off of him, making it almost impossible to run sweep plays to his side. Carriker owns a non-stop motor, which is typical of Nebraska defensive lineman. He projects as a dominant defensive end in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 system.
NFL Comparison - Trevor Pryce
Runner Up - Quentin Moses, Sr. Georgia
The 6'4'' 250 lbs. Moses is the best pure pass rusher in the nation. However, his slight frame and tendency to get upfield make him somewhat of a liability against the run. He will probably be chosen too high in the NFL draft as he projects as another in the long line of one dimensional, speed rushing defensive ends such as Jevon Kearse, and Leonard Little.
Defensive Tackles: Quinn Pitcock, Sr. Ohio State; Brandon Mebane, Sr. California
Pitcock is not your typical Ohio State tackle. He doesn't rack up huge numbers like Ryan Pickett, or Dan Wilkinson, but he is every bit as valuable. In 2005 Pitcock consistently ate up 2 or even 3 blockers, allowing the Buckeyes' star studded linebacking corpse to run around and make plays. With AJ Hawk, Bobby Carpenter, and Anthony Schlegl all playing in the NFL, it would not be suprising to see Jim Tressel ask Pitcock to make more plays in the backfield (something he is more than capable of doing). At 6'3'' and 300 lbs., Pitcock is a true run stuffing tackle. He has adequate speed to play the 3-4 end in the NFL, but projects as more of a 1 technique tackle in a 4-3 defense.
NFL Comparison - Rod Coleman
Though he is bigger than Pitcock, Mebane is a protoype 3 technique, pentrating tackle. At 6'3'' and 306 lbs. with tremendous quickness, Mebane is built like a 3-4 defensive end. His 7 sacks and 9.5 tackles for a loss in 2005 only serve to further emphasize Mebane's ability to wreak havoc in the opposing backfield. With a more talented California defense surrounding him in 2006, Mebane should be able to put up much more dominant numbers and establish himself as the premier pass rushing tackle in the country.
NFL Comparison - Kevin Williams
Runner Up - Jay Alford, Sr. Penn State
While I love his game, Alford just misses because of his slight size (only 6'2'', 280 lbs.). Alford is probably quicker than any other tackle in the country, and is an excellent pass rusher. Unless he makes the move to defensive end in the NFL, he projects as a situational pass rusher in the mold of Jarvis Green. Although the same thing was said about another 6'2'' 280 lbs. tackle coming out of college......John Randle.
Middle Linebacker: Patrick Willis, Sr. Mississippi
Willis flies under the radar since he plays for Ole' Miss., but he has proven to be one the best players in the entire SEC. Willis lacks elite speed and is a bit undersized for a middle linebacker at 6'2'' and 230 lbs. Still, he is a tackling machine and a ferocious hitter. Willis is outstanding at reading keys and anticipating the play. He plays under control so he rarely overpursues and is almost never out of position. Willis is a smart enough player that with time he could develop into an adequate pass defender, making him a 3 down linebacker in an NFL 4-3 scheme.
NFL Comparison - London Fletcher
Runner Up - HB Blades, Sr. Pittsburgh
Blades has been a highly productive linebacker at Pitt, twice earning all Big East honors. Blades started his career as a strong side outside linebacker, but shifted to middle in 2005. He has the speed and size to make all the plays, although his is not as polished as Willis. Blades projects as a strong side NFL linebacker in the mold of Jamie Sharper.
Outside Linebackers: Paul Posluszny, Sr. Penn State; Rufus Alexander, Sr. Oklahoma
Posluszny, the reigning Butkus Award winner, is flat out the best defensive player in America. He is blessed with the size (6'2'' 230 lbs.), speed (4.5), and smarts you want in your defensive leader. Had he not hurt his knee in last year's Orange Bowl, he would have been an early first round pick and should be a man among boys playing in the college game this season. The most impressive thing about Posluszny, though, is his ability to stay within the scheme and still make as many tackles as he does. Unlike former Nittany Lion Lavar Arrington, Posluszny never freelances, and always finds himself in the right position. He has great closing speed, and is the best backside pursuit linebacker I have seen.
NFL Comparison - Jesse Armstead
Physically, Alexander is similar to, perhaps even a step ahead of, Posluszny. At 6'3'', 230 lbs. he has the frame to add more weight should an NFL wish to move him to the strong side or into the middle. However, if I drafted him I would leave him on the weak side where his tremendous speed and instincts allow him to roam free and make plays in the backfield. The only area where Alexander's game is lacking is discipline. While he made a mind-boggline 17 tackles for a loss last season, Alexander can get caught out of position by patient runners. With so many zone blocking schemes in the NFL, Alexander is going to have to learn how to play the cutback better. He could learn a thing or two from Posluszny.
NFL Comparison - Takeo Spikes
Runner Up - Sam Oljabutu, Sr. Arkansas
At 5'9'' and 230 lbs., Oljabutu is a kamikaze on the football field. He is a ferocious hitter who plays with a chip on his shoulder. A great college player, he reminds me a lot of former Clemson standout Keith Adams who has carved out a niche for himself in the NFL as a special teams gunner and occasional nickel linebacker.
Cornerbacks: Antoine Cason, Jr. Arizona; Daymeion Hughes, Sr. California
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Cason is the second Stoops coached player on my preseason all America defense. Cason is not as high a profile player as Oklahoma's Rufus Alexander, but then again Mike Stoops is not as high profile a coach as his brother Bob. Though his teams have struggled record wise, Mike Stoops has quietly turned the University of Arizona into a very formidable opponent. Like his elder brother, Mike Stoops relies on a hard hitting, physical defense to torment the opposition. Cason fits that mold perfectly. A tremendous athlete, Cason is one of the few cornerbacks in America capable of playing both man-to-man coverage and zone. He has safety like tackling skills, racking up 120 stops in his first two seasons in Tuscon. Playing in the "air it out" Pac-10, Cason has had to develope quickly and projects as an NFL corner, ready to start from Day 1.
NFL Comparison - Antoine Winfield
Hughes is probably the most physically gifted cornerback in America. Blessed with outstanding size at 6'2'' and 180 lbs., Hughes has the athletic ability to dominate most opponents in man-to-man coverage. Though he can struggle in zone at times, there is no reason to think that Hughes cannot improve on his recognition skills will more time. You can teach a player to read coverages in a zone, you can't teach the kind of athletic ability Hughes sports. Though he is not as sure a tackler as Cason, Hughes never shies away from contact and is willing to come up in run support. If Hughes is drafted into the right NFL system, he could blossom into an absolute superstar lock-down corner.
NFL Comparison - Shawn Springs
Runner Up - Leon Hall, Sr. Michigan
Hall gets the nod because of his overall potential. At 5'11'' and 190 lbs. Hall is a compact corner in the mold of former Wolverines Ty Law and Marlin Jackson. While Hall has the potential to be the best cover corner in the country, he has yet to show that he can consistently play at a high level. How Hall harnesses his ability this season will determine whether he develops into a perennial all-pro like Ty Law, or a disappointment like Jackson.
Free Safety: Brandon Meriweather, Sr. Miami
I remember watching Miami-FSU early last season, and wondering who the Miami kid was who was flying all over the field making plays. I also remember wondering why the Seminols didn't go away from him. Well the player was Brandon Meriweather, and the reason they didn't go away from him was they couldn't. Technically a strong safety at Miami, Meriweather has the speed and instincts to play either safety spot. Meriweather may not be as flashy as former Hurricane Ed Reed, or as big of a hitter as Sean Taylor, but I prefer his game to either. Too often safety prospects are overrated because they make big interceptions like Reed, or big hits like Taylor. Meriweather is a steady safety, who may not make as many interceptions as Reed, but is far superior in deep coverage (Reed's highlight reel interceptions mask his shortcomings covering the deep pass). Similarly, Meriweather is not a 235 lbs. behemoth like Taylor, but he is a willing, sure tackler who knows his role as last line of defense. Overall, Meriweather is a technically sound safety who just makes plays.
NFL Comparison - Darren Sharper
Strong Safety: Tom Zbikowski, Sr. Notre Dame
While Zbikowski does not have the natural ability of some of the other defensive backs in the country, he more than makes up for it in leadership and toughness. A part time boxer, Zbikowski is easliy the best player on a weak Irish defense and probably the toughest player in the nation. While he can struggle in coverage at times, there is no denying that he is one of the surest tacklers in the nation and is never afraid to stick his nose into a fray. Like Meriweather, he is a smart player who uses his instincts and desire to make up for his less than adequate speed. Comparing him to John Lynch may be a bit generous, but Zbikowski is smart enough and tough enough to succeed as a cover 2 strong safety in the NFL.
NFL Comparison - the late Pat Tillman
Runner Up - Mike Griffin, Sr. Texas
Griffin earns the nod by a hair over LSU's LaRon Landry because of his versatility. Like former Longhorn great Mike Huff, Griffin can line up at either safety spot, corner, and can even cover the slot man in a nickel set. To think that the Longhorns had the trio of him, Huff, and Cedric Griffin in the same secondary last season is scary.
While I have been accused of having a flair for the dramatic (perhaps evidenced by my preseason ranking of Auburn #1), this selection is as pedstrian as they come. By no means do I intend to denigrate Mr. Quinn with this statement. If anything, it should be viewed as laudatory, serving notice that he is so far superior to all other quarterbacks in the nation so as to remove all doubt as to the 1st team all America selection. Brady Quinn is a prototypical NFL quarterback. He has the size to stand in the pocket, the arm to make every throw, and the intelligence to know where, and perhaps more importantly when, to deliver the football. With two years directing an NFL style offense under the tutelage of Charlie Weis, we may be looking at the most NFL ready college quarterback since Peyton Manning.
NFL Comparison - Jim Kelly
Runner Up - Drew Stanton, Sr. Michigan State
Stanton is my favorite college QB. His toughness, mobility, and improvisation reminds me of Matt Hasselbeck. He thrives against the best competition, and revels in carrying his team.
Running Back: Adrien Peterson, Jr. Oklahoma
Another essential position, another obvious selection. To be perfectly blunt, Peterson is the most natural rusher I have ever seen. Every run of his is a work of art, whether it's a short burst up the middle, or Oklahoma's patented stretch sweep which he runs better than anyone this side of Larry Johnson. Peterson is so fluid on the field, and plays the game so effortlessly that even a football novice would recognize his greatness almost immediately. Sure Peterson has the size and the speed, but more importantly he has a seemingly preternatural understanding of the running back position. Not only does Peterson have the vision and patience to wait for a play to develop, but he has the instincts to delay his cut or slightly alter his route to the hole to give his blockers better angles on defenders. Despite his tremendous size (6'2'') and powerful build (220 lbs.), Peterson has the ability to never get hit squarely by a defender and avoid most of the punishment that shortens the careers of tall backs (see George, Eddie; Campbell, Earl). Should he enter the NFL draft after this season, he would most likely be the number one pick overall.
NFL Comparison - Eric Dickerson
Runner Up - Garrette Wolfe, Sr. Northern Illinois
With all due respect to the more talented backs like Marshawn Lynch, Steve Slaton, and Michael Bush, I have to give some love to the MAC and it's best (and perhaps littlest) player. Wolfe is a Warrick Dunn clone, though he does not catch as many passes as the Seminole great.
Wide Receivers: Dwayne Jarrett, Jr. USC; Jeff Samardzjia, Sr. Notre Dame
Assuming he is academically eligible to play, Jarrett might be the best overall offensvie player in the country not named Peterson. Jarrett is a massive target (6'5'') and as physical a receiver as there is in the country. His stature and production beg comparisons to former USC receiver Mike Williams, although Jarrett's production and work ethic in his two seasons for the men of Troy indicate that he is a far better NFL prospect. Though he has had some off the field issues this offseason, between the lines Jarrett is everything a coach could want and plays hard on every down (as evidenced by his excellence as a downfield blocker). It will be interesting to see how Jarrett performs without his partner in crime Matt Leinart, although he and alter-ego Steve Smith could make me look decent at QB.
NFL Comparison - Michael Irvine
Samardzjia is another huge target (6'5'', 220 lbs.) who is coming off a wildly productive 2005 season. Unlike Jarrett, Samardzjia was resigned to the bench for his first two seasons in South Bend before exploding as a junior. As such, he is not nearly as polished as Jarrett when it comes to route running and reading defensive backs. However, Samardzjia is just as physical going after the ball as Jarrett is, and may possess the best hands in all of college football. Because he lacks elite speed, Samardzjia is at his best against zone defenses and may open his NFL career as a slot reciever. However, the more he plays the more he will learn to use his size against smaller defensive backs in man coverage and truly become a complete reciever.
NFL Comparison - Cris Carter
Runner Up - Calvin Johnson, Jr. Georgia Tech
A better blend of size (6'4'', 235 lbs.) and speed (4.4) than either Jarrett or Samardzjia, Johnson just misses because he has not produced as consistently as either. That said, physically he projects as the best NFL prospect, although his inconsistency begs the question of whether he is more Terrell Owens, or JJ Stokes.
Tight End: Joe Newton, Sr. Oregon State
While Juniors Zach Miller (Arizona State) and Greg Olsen (Miami) get most of the attention, it is Newton who is the most complete TE in the nation. Newton was outstanding as a Sophomore catching 56 balls for 687 yards and 7 touchdowns, but seems to get lost in the shufle of promising tight ends because he missed all of last season with a leg injury. Newton is massive at 6'7'' and 260 lbs. He does not have great speed, but he catches everything thrown his way and is a better blocker than most tackles. Newton will never put up eye popping combine numbers like Vernon Davis or Tony Gonzalez, but he is the type of player that winning teams rely on.
NFL Comparison - Dave Casper
Runner up - Brian Leonard, Sr. Rutgers
Technically Leonard is a fullback, but he deserves mention on this all America team. A rugged runner with deceptive speed, Leonard contributes in every aspect of the game (blocking, running, and catching). He executes screen passes as well as anyong since Keith Byars.
Tackles: Joe Thomas, Sr. Wisconsin; Levi Jones, Sr. Penn State
Thomas is a prototypical left tackle with his 6'8'' frame, and long arms to keep defensive lineman away from his body. He is a shade over 300 pounds, but is not really an overpowering run blocker in the mold of an Anthony Munoz. Thomas has outstanding balance and footwork which helps him excel in pass protection, the most important trait for the man guarding the quarterback's blind side. A former defensive lineman, Thomas knows all the defensive techniques and pass rush moves, and he has the instincts to anticipate counter moves and defensive line stunts. Joe Thomas projects as a long term left tackle in the NFL.
NFL Comparison - Gary Zimmerman
Whereas Joe Thomas should be described as more of a technician, Levi Jones in an old school road paver at left tackle. At 6'5'' 330 lbs., Jones is one of the biggest and most powerful lineman in America. While he lacks Thomas' elite pass protection skills, Jones is a true mauler in the running game who can hold his own against the best pass rushers in the nation. As the lone returning starter along the offensive line, Jones will be asked to carry the load for the Nittany Lions this season. Jones projects as a capable left tackle in the NFL, though his size and lack of ideal footwork may cause him to struggle against the new bread of NFL speed rushing ends/linebackers. I would not be suprised to see Jones shift to the right tackle spot where he can used his power and nastiness to dominate in the running game.
NFL Comparison - Jon Runyan
Runner Up - Justin Blalock, Sr. Texas
Blalock is a bit overrated in my opinion, but still remains one of the top lineman in the nation. He is big and strong, but struggles in space like almost all recent Texas o-lineman (see Davis, Leonard; Williams, Mike). Blalock will most likely have to play guard in the NFL but projects similar to former Longhorn Leonard Davis.
Guards: Josh Beekman, Sr. Boston College; Mike Jones, Sr. Iowa
Like all BC lineman, Beekman is a poweful, nasty, and smart blocker. While many believe his permanent position is center, I love Beekman as a long term left guard in the NFL. While Beekman is an outstanding run blocker, what makes him a top flight prospect are his left tackle caliber pass protection skills. At 325 lbs., Beekman is strong enough to stalemate even the most powerful defensive tackles, and he possesses uncanny balance and footwork for a guard.
NFL Comparison - Chris Snee
Jones is not quite as powerful as Beekman (who is), but at 308 lbs. he is certainly no slouch. Jones' best attribute is his intelligence, as he lined up at both tackle spots for the Hawkeyes last season before settling at guard. While it is possible that Jones could play tackle in the NFL, he should be a dominant guard, capable of playing in any system. Look for Jones to start from day 1 in the NFL, as he has been the beneficiary of four years of coaching from one of the best offensive line coaches on the planet in Iowa head man Kirk Ferentz.
NFL Comparison - Mike Wahle
Runner Up - Ken Quarterman, Sr. Louisville
My favorite O-Lineman in the nation, Qarterman is dominant inside at 6'5'' and 336 lbs. Easily the best straight ahead run blocker in the nation, Quarterman projects as an NFL right guard in the mold of former Viking David Dixon.
Center: Dan Mozes, Sr. West Virginia
While there are no truly dominant centers in America this season, Mozes gets the nod based on his consistency and leadership. Mozes has been a four year starter for the mountaineers, and is excellent in space taking on quicker linebackers. At only 290 lbs. Mozes can struggle at times with more powerful defenders. While he has played some guard for Rich Rodriguez in the past, Mozes is much more suited for the center position where he can sift through at the point of attack and take on scraping linebackers.
NFL Comparison - Mark Stepnoski
Runner Up - Ryan Kalil, Sr. USC
Another veteran leader, Kalil is a technically sound center who does not possess incredible natural power or explosion. However, he has bulked up to 285 lbs. and his coaches love his wortk ethic and intelligence. He looks like a late round pick who could find himself as an NFL starter by the end of his rookie season. His profile fits that of a Dan Koppen type.
Defensive Ends: Gaines Adams, Sr. Clemson; Adam Carriker, Sr. Nebraska
At 6'3'' and 265 lbs. Adams is the prototypical college "tweener". Lucky for him, he plays on a loaded Clemson front seven, which allows the coaching staff to move him between end and linebacker (technically called the "bandit" position). Adams is a pure disrupter, posting 55 tackles and 9.5 sacks last season. His 15 tackles for a loss and 29 quarterback pressures in 2005 evidence his adept ability to play on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. Because of his smallish frame and outstanding speed, Adams projects as a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL. Though he will need to learn to play more consistently in pass coverage, there is little doubt that he has the speed, quickness, and agility to develope into a top flight curl-flat defender.
NFL Comparison - Roosevelt Colvin
Though not blessed with the pure talent of Adams, Carriker is a far more complete defensive end, and one of the best all around defensive players in the nation. Not only is Carriker one of the best pass rushers in the Big 12 (9.5 sacks in 2005), but he is also stout against the run. Built like an offensive tackle, Carriker stands 6'6'' and 295 lbs. He is exceptional at leveraging his body and maintaining the outside by keeping offensive lineman off of him, making it almost impossible to run sweep plays to his side. Carriker owns a non-stop motor, which is typical of Nebraska defensive lineman. He projects as a dominant defensive end in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 system.
NFL Comparison - Trevor Pryce
Runner Up - Quentin Moses, Sr. Georgia
The 6'4'' 250 lbs. Moses is the best pure pass rusher in the nation. However, his slight frame and tendency to get upfield make him somewhat of a liability against the run. He will probably be chosen too high in the NFL draft as he projects as another in the long line of one dimensional, speed rushing defensive ends such as Jevon Kearse, and Leonard Little.
Defensive Tackles: Quinn Pitcock, Sr. Ohio State; Brandon Mebane, Sr. California
Pitcock is not your typical Ohio State tackle. He doesn't rack up huge numbers like Ryan Pickett, or Dan Wilkinson, but he is every bit as valuable. In 2005 Pitcock consistently ate up 2 or even 3 blockers, allowing the Buckeyes' star studded linebacking corpse to run around and make plays. With AJ Hawk, Bobby Carpenter, and Anthony Schlegl all playing in the NFL, it would not be suprising to see Jim Tressel ask Pitcock to make more plays in the backfield (something he is more than capable of doing). At 6'3'' and 300 lbs., Pitcock is a true run stuffing tackle. He has adequate speed to play the 3-4 end in the NFL, but projects as more of a 1 technique tackle in a 4-3 defense.
NFL Comparison - Rod Coleman
Though he is bigger than Pitcock, Mebane is a protoype 3 technique, pentrating tackle. At 6'3'' and 306 lbs. with tremendous quickness, Mebane is built like a 3-4 defensive end. His 7 sacks and 9.5 tackles for a loss in 2005 only serve to further emphasize Mebane's ability to wreak havoc in the opposing backfield. With a more talented California defense surrounding him in 2006, Mebane should be able to put up much more dominant numbers and establish himself as the premier pass rushing tackle in the country.
NFL Comparison - Kevin Williams
Runner Up - Jay Alford, Sr. Penn State
While I love his game, Alford just misses because of his slight size (only 6'2'', 280 lbs.). Alford is probably quicker than any other tackle in the country, and is an excellent pass rusher. Unless he makes the move to defensive end in the NFL, he projects as a situational pass rusher in the mold of Jarvis Green. Although the same thing was said about another 6'2'' 280 lbs. tackle coming out of college......John Randle.
Middle Linebacker: Patrick Willis, Sr. Mississippi
Willis flies under the radar since he plays for Ole' Miss., but he has proven to be one the best players in the entire SEC. Willis lacks elite speed and is a bit undersized for a middle linebacker at 6'2'' and 230 lbs. Still, he is a tackling machine and a ferocious hitter. Willis is outstanding at reading keys and anticipating the play. He plays under control so he rarely overpursues and is almost never out of position. Willis is a smart enough player that with time he could develop into an adequate pass defender, making him a 3 down linebacker in an NFL 4-3 scheme.
NFL Comparison - London Fletcher
Runner Up - HB Blades, Sr. Pittsburgh
Blades has been a highly productive linebacker at Pitt, twice earning all Big East honors. Blades started his career as a strong side outside linebacker, but shifted to middle in 2005. He has the speed and size to make all the plays, although his is not as polished as Willis. Blades projects as a strong side NFL linebacker in the mold of Jamie Sharper.
Outside Linebackers: Paul Posluszny, Sr. Penn State; Rufus Alexander, Sr. Oklahoma
Posluszny, the reigning Butkus Award winner, is flat out the best defensive player in America. He is blessed with the size (6'2'' 230 lbs.), speed (4.5), and smarts you want in your defensive leader. Had he not hurt his knee in last year's Orange Bowl, he would have been an early first round pick and should be a man among boys playing in the college game this season. The most impressive thing about Posluszny, though, is his ability to stay within the scheme and still make as many tackles as he does. Unlike former Nittany Lion Lavar Arrington, Posluszny never freelances, and always finds himself in the right position. He has great closing speed, and is the best backside pursuit linebacker I have seen.
NFL Comparison - Jesse Armstead
Physically, Alexander is similar to, perhaps even a step ahead of, Posluszny. At 6'3'', 230 lbs. he has the frame to add more weight should an NFL wish to move him to the strong side or into the middle. However, if I drafted him I would leave him on the weak side where his tremendous speed and instincts allow him to roam free and make plays in the backfield. The only area where Alexander's game is lacking is discipline. While he made a mind-boggline 17 tackles for a loss last season, Alexander can get caught out of position by patient runners. With so many zone blocking schemes in the NFL, Alexander is going to have to learn how to play the cutback better. He could learn a thing or two from Posluszny.
NFL Comparison - Takeo Spikes
Runner Up - Sam Oljabutu, Sr. Arkansas
At 5'9'' and 230 lbs., Oljabutu is a kamikaze on the football field. He is a ferocious hitter who plays with a chip on his shoulder. A great college player, he reminds me a lot of former Clemson standout Keith Adams who has carved out a niche for himself in the NFL as a special teams gunner and occasional nickel linebacker.
Cornerbacks: Antoine Cason, Jr. Arizona; Daymeion Hughes, Sr. California
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Cason is the second Stoops coached player on my preseason all America defense. Cason is not as high a profile player as Oklahoma's Rufus Alexander, but then again Mike Stoops is not as high profile a coach as his brother Bob. Though his teams have struggled record wise, Mike Stoops has quietly turned the University of Arizona into a very formidable opponent. Like his elder brother, Mike Stoops relies on a hard hitting, physical defense to torment the opposition. Cason fits that mold perfectly. A tremendous athlete, Cason is one of the few cornerbacks in America capable of playing both man-to-man coverage and zone. He has safety like tackling skills, racking up 120 stops in his first two seasons in Tuscon. Playing in the "air it out" Pac-10, Cason has had to develope quickly and projects as an NFL corner, ready to start from Day 1.
NFL Comparison - Antoine Winfield
Hughes is probably the most physically gifted cornerback in America. Blessed with outstanding size at 6'2'' and 180 lbs., Hughes has the athletic ability to dominate most opponents in man-to-man coverage. Though he can struggle in zone at times, there is no reason to think that Hughes cannot improve on his recognition skills will more time. You can teach a player to read coverages in a zone, you can't teach the kind of athletic ability Hughes sports. Though he is not as sure a tackler as Cason, Hughes never shies away from contact and is willing to come up in run support. If Hughes is drafted into the right NFL system, he could blossom into an absolute superstar lock-down corner.
NFL Comparison - Shawn Springs
Runner Up - Leon Hall, Sr. Michigan
Hall gets the nod because of his overall potential. At 5'11'' and 190 lbs. Hall is a compact corner in the mold of former Wolverines Ty Law and Marlin Jackson. While Hall has the potential to be the best cover corner in the country, he has yet to show that he can consistently play at a high level. How Hall harnesses his ability this season will determine whether he develops into a perennial all-pro like Ty Law, or a disappointment like Jackson.
Free Safety: Brandon Meriweather, Sr. Miami
I remember watching Miami-FSU early last season, and wondering who the Miami kid was who was flying all over the field making plays. I also remember wondering why the Seminols didn't go away from him. Well the player was Brandon Meriweather, and the reason they didn't go away from him was they couldn't. Technically a strong safety at Miami, Meriweather has the speed and instincts to play either safety spot. Meriweather may not be as flashy as former Hurricane Ed Reed, or as big of a hitter as Sean Taylor, but I prefer his game to either. Too often safety prospects are overrated because they make big interceptions like Reed, or big hits like Taylor. Meriweather is a steady safety, who may not make as many interceptions as Reed, but is far superior in deep coverage (Reed's highlight reel interceptions mask his shortcomings covering the deep pass). Similarly, Meriweather is not a 235 lbs. behemoth like Taylor, but he is a willing, sure tackler who knows his role as last line of defense. Overall, Meriweather is a technically sound safety who just makes plays.
NFL Comparison - Darren Sharper
Strong Safety: Tom Zbikowski, Sr. Notre Dame
While Zbikowski does not have the natural ability of some of the other defensive backs in the country, he more than makes up for it in leadership and toughness. A part time boxer, Zbikowski is easliy the best player on a weak Irish defense and probably the toughest player in the nation. While he can struggle in coverage at times, there is no denying that he is one of the surest tacklers in the nation and is never afraid to stick his nose into a fray. Like Meriweather, he is a smart player who uses his instincts and desire to make up for his less than adequate speed. Comparing him to John Lynch may be a bit generous, but Zbikowski is smart enough and tough enough to succeed as a cover 2 strong safety in the NFL.
NFL Comparison - the late Pat Tillman
Runner Up - Mike Griffin, Sr. Texas
Griffin earns the nod by a hair over LSU's LaRon Landry because of his versatility. Like former Longhorn great Mike Huff, Griffin can line up at either safety spot, corner, and can even cover the slot man in a nickel set. To think that the Longhorns had the trio of him, Huff, and Cedric Griffin in the same secondary last season is scary.
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
The 323 - Preseason College Football Top 10
As anyone who can read has no doubt already gleaned, both Donny and myself have an infatuation with baseball that borders on obsessive-compulsion. Sadly, I cannot even place baseball alone atop my list of vices that subsume my life, as our national pastime must share that mantel with our country's other great passion: football.
Both Donny and I played football together in high school, side by side in both the offensive and defensive trenches. Donny played for a year in college, while I have pursued a coaching career on the high school level for the past three seasons. In a word, there are few people in New England not named Belichick who know more about the game than I do. In the past 6 years have attended countless games, broken down days worth of game film, and have more blue books filled with offensive and defensive schemes than I know what to do with. If I may be as bold as I am arrogant, listen to what I have to say about the game. I know what I am talking about.
While I would never even dream of missing a Patriots game, as the title of this post indicates I love college football (323 references the number of wins for Bear Bryant, the greatest football coach of all time). What follows is my first attempt at a preseason top 10. However, it would be somewhat inaccurate to describe what follows as a true preseason poll as the teams are not ranked in order of skill, potential, or dominance, but rather in the order that I believe represents the likelihood each team possesses of making it to the championship game.
Methodology: So how did I come up with this rather unorthodox looking preseason top 10? And what does it mean? Well, as I explained earlier, the following poll lists the teams, in order, that possess the best chance of making it to the championship game. While many factors went into the equation that produced this list, essentially it can be boiled down to the reconciliation of a team's talent against its schedule.
Step #1 - I chose the 20 teams who are realistically in the discussion for the national championship this season. All of these teams came from the BCS conferences, because, frankly, as much as I love Fresno State, Boise State, and everyone from the MAC (by far my favorite college conference), those teams do not have a realistic opportunity to play for the BCS championship.
Step #2 - Based on a 12 game season, I flat out gave each of these 20 teams 8 wins over their 8 weakest opponents. This 8-0 record (7-0 for teams who only play 11 games) represents the best-case scenario for a team with national title aspirations. Basically, it assumes that each of these 20 teams is not going to lose a game that they are supposed to win. Now I concede that this is an imperfect science, but this list is all about comparative chances and not mathematical precision.
Step #3 - I determined the 4 most difficult opponents for each of the 20 teams based on four factors: (1) the strength of the opponent's returning players, (2) the strength of the opponent's recruiting class and/or transfers, (3) where the game is going to be played, and (4) any significant history between the two teams.
Step #4 - I made a list with each of the 20 teams in one column, and their 4 toughest opponents in an adjacent column. I then used process of elimination to divide the 20 teams into 4 categories: national title contenders who could realistically go undefeated, national title contenders despite the fact that they are likely to lose 1 game, teams that are likely to lose more than 1 game, and pretenders.
Step #5 - I arranged the teams in each category in the order which I believe best represents their preseason chances of going to the national championship game. This determination was based on the relative skill and talent of each team, and the relative difficulty of their 4 toughest games. Voila, a preseason top 10 that is likely to look different than any you have seen so far.
#1 - Auburn
Someone upstairs loves Auburn. The Tigers return a core group of players led by a potential All-SEC backfield comprising of Kenny Irons and Brandon Cox (one of the more underrated signal callers in the conference, if not the country). Though Auburn was hurt some by graduation and defection to the NFL, they return their two best offensive weapons, and their two best defensive players in converted safety Will Herring and CB David Irons.
What vaults this team into the top spot, though, is a schedule that has seemingly been touched by the hand of God. Of their 4 toughest opponents, the three best teams (LSU, Florida, and Georgia) have to travel to Auburn, and the games are spread out with at least two weeks in between each of these contests. The only difficult road game Auburn has this season will be the finale against Alabama in the Iron Bowl. While this game is always a war, this is not the magical Alabama team of last year. Auburn has the talent to dominate the Crimson Tide, and will be especially amped for the game if they enter it 11-0. Two games to watch out for: the opener against a strong Washington State team (although after losing the opener a season ago, my money is on Auburn demolishing the Cougars), and their Oct. 7 date with Arkansas (who is an SEC sleeper) which has the look of an obvious trap game the week before Florida comes to town. Tommy Tubberville has proven that he is one of the best in the business, and I say he has his troops ready each week.
#2 - Louisville
Another surprising selection, but perhaps they shouldn't be given their talent, conference, and schedule this season. Assuming star QB Brian Brohm is healthy, the Cardinals boast three of the best at their positions in all of college football in Brohm, RB Michael Bush, and most importantly head coach Bobby Petrino (who is, along with Dan Hawkins and Rich Rodriguez, one of the finest offensive minds in the college game today). Though the defense is not star studded, they always seem to get their explosive offense the ball just enough to win.
Like Auburn, Louisville has an amazingly favorable schedule. Of their four toughest games, only two are on the road: at Syracuse (a very poor team whose presence on the list of Lousiville's toughest games speaks to the decline of the Big East), and at Pittsburgh (who is maddeningly inconsistent). Home dates against clearly the two best teams they play all season, Miami (Sept. 16) and West Virginia (Nov. 2), will determine if Lousiville takes the next step towards becoming a national power. Louisville played inspired football at the Orange Bowl last season, serving notice that they would not be intimidated by Miami. The smart money is on Brohm and Co. taking care of Miami in Kentucky, setting the stage for a battle of unbeatens, and a possible spot in the national title game, when a very strong West Virginia team comes to town Nov. 2. Louisville gets the nod playing on its home turf.
#3 - USC
While it seems almost impossible to rank USC so high based on the amount of talent they lost to the NFL draft, it is even more impossible to think about how much talent they still have on this team. They still boast the best receiving duo in the nation in Dwayne Jarrett (who looks like a #1 overall pick if ever I saw one), and Steve Smith. The much-maligned defense should be much stronger this year with double digit sack man Lawrence Jackson, and as young and talented a LB corpse as there is in the country led by super Soph Rey Maualuga. While the loss of all of their backfield could potentially derail this dynasty, both John David Booty and Matt Sanchez were former #1 overall recruits (!!!!), so they clearly have the ability to succeed. The development of whichever one wins the starting QB battle will determine just how far USC falls this season (if at all).
Thanks to what appears to be a loaded Pac-10 this year, USC's schedule is by no means easy (road games at much improved Arizona, Washington State and Stanford will be a chore). It is, however, favorable in that their the two toughest opponents, Notre Dame and California, have to travel to the land of Troy. Even though ND and Cal represent two of the most offensively talented teams in the country, I have to believe that USC will be favored to win both of them based on their defensive superiority. Their other two toughest games, Nebraska at home and at UCLA, are tremendous steps down in terms of competition. Though I loved what Nebraska was able to do in the second half of last season, they are not ready to step on the field with the athletes USC can throw at them quite yet. Ditto for UCLA who appears to be heading backwards already, after a surprising 2005 season (although BYU transfer Ben Olson may be the most highly sought after QB by NFL teams by the end of the season). One other game that USC needs to watch out for: their opener at Arkansas. Houston Nutt is a fantastic coach and I think Arkansas could be a real sleeper in the SEC. Given that USC will be traveling across the country, and playing their first game in three seasons without Matt Leinart, it could have the making for an early season shocker.
#4 - West Virginia
A second Big East team in the top 4, how can that be? Well, it's easy. If the chips fall as they should and Louisville holds serve against Miami, they will meet on Nov. 2 for the Big East title and a shot at a national championship. While West Virginia's schedule is a joke, their team is far from one. RB Steve Slaton and QB Pat White form an explosive backfield, both capable of taking it to the house from anywhere on the field. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has installed the perfect offense for these two playmakers, and they should be even better with another year under their belts. The real question is going to be whether White can throw the ball more consistently if teams stack the line against Slaton. Sadly, save for their games against Louisville and maybe Pittsburgh, it won't matter.
There is no doubt that WVA has the easiest road to the BCS of any contending team. That said, its not as if there aren't landmines along the way (hence their #4 ranking). Aside from their trip to Louisville (where they will not be favored), WVA has to travel over 200 miles north to play a much improved UConn team (with a great coach who will be ready for them) and travel to Pittsburgh for their rivalry game known as "The Backyard Brawl." While WVA will be favored in both, the Mountaineers aren't balanced enough on either side of the ball to overcome a sub par performance on the road.
#5 - Notre Dame
While fifth might seem awful low for Notre Dame, to be honest I was hesitant to even rank them this high. Yes 2005 was a wonderful season for Notre Dame. And yes Charlie Weis is a great coach who has seemed to turn this program around. And yes they have the best offense on paper in the country. But for all the ballyhoo surrounding Notre Dame's "resurrection" last year, I find it interesting that they only beat one team of consequence the entire season (Michigan). In fact, Notre Dame received more accolades for almost beating USC than they did for any single win the entire season. I just wonder how well they will fare with a much tougher 2006 schedule.
All that said, the Irish offense is stacked. Brady Quinn is hands down the best QB in the country, and Jeff Samardzjia has transformed himself from a third or fourth college wideout into a top 10 NFL pick. Though they lost Marice Stovall to the NFL, many believe that his replacement, Rhema McKnight (who was actually starting over Samardzjia before getting hurt last season), may actually be a better natural receiver. While there is no arguing that the offense will put up world class numbers, I fail to see any improvement in a defense that was consistently outclassed last season, especially in the secondary. Safety Tom Zbikowski is a great player, but he is at his best near the line of scrimmage making tackles. The bottom line is that the Irish defense doesn't have anyone that can cover. They were torched last season by mediocre passing offenses such as Michigan State (44 pts), Ohio State (34 pts), and Stanford (31 pts). At some point, this defense is going to need to make some plays and I am not certain they can consistently do it.
As I referenced earlier, the Irish schedule is significantly more difficult this year. Two of their four toughest games require trips to teams that beat them last season (Michigan State and USC). While Notre Dame will probably be favored against the Spartans, Michigan State always seems to play up to (and down to) the level of their opponents. When the Irish travel to East Lansing they will be coming off a brutal opening schedule which includes home games against their other 2 toughest opponents: Penn State and Michigan (though they get both of them at home), and a season opening trip to Georgia Tech (who happen to have the best WR in the country not playing for the Irish in Calvin Johnson to test their secondary early and often). Add creative Michigan State QB Drew Stanton to the mix and that game has the makings of a potential shocker early in the season. If the Irish somehow manage to get through their early schedule without a loss, their finale at USC still looms. I cannot foresee any circumstances where Notre Dame would be favored in that game, although if they are playing for an undefeated season and a chance at the national title I wouldn't bet against them. Overall, Notre Dame just has too many difficult road games to be considered as a team likely to go undefeated.
#6 - Ohio State
Ohio State is in a nearly identical situation to Notre Dame. They possess all the talent in the world, but have as tough a schedule as you can find. Offensively, the Buckeyes look imposing. Troy Smith became a bonafide heisman contender last season, and Ted Ginn Jr. finally realized that he plays for a division 1A powerhouse. That said, 5 games does not a career make, and neither Smith nor Ginn have the pedigree that guys like Quinn and Samardzjia have. This could be troubling for Ohio State because they will need those guys to be dominant every game. The defense was decimated by graduation, especially to the LB corpse. OSU should be typically strong up front with all world DT Quinn Pitcock, but it has been four years since they played a game without AJ Hawk, and the OSU LB corpse is the most reconstructed unit in the nation. The defense could struggle early.
Like Notre Dame, Ohio State's schedule is murderous. Three of their four toughest games are on the road, including a trip to defending national champion Texas in the second week of the season (at Iowa and at Michigan State being the others). Its true that some guy named Vince Young is gone to the NFL, but Austin is a tough place to play no matter who they are trotting out there, and I would be shocked if OSU was not at least a field goal underdog in that game. The Buckeyes do catch a break, though, getting Michigan at home, but that's one of those rivalry games and it wouldn't be the first time that an undermanned Michigan team ruined Ohio State's season in the last game. Ohio State, like ND, has the ability to win each of those tough road games individually, however it’s hard to imagine that they could play all three without slipping up along the way.
#7 - Oklahoma
How quickly people forget just how good Adrian Peterson is. Taking absolutely nothing away from Brady Quinn, or Troy Smith, or Marshawn Lynch, Peterson is by far the most talented offensive player in the country. He alone is enough to carry Oklahoma into the top 10. However, Oklahoma is set up for a very nice bounce back season. QB Rhett Bhomar improved steadily over the course of last season, and Peterson's presence should do nothing but aid his development into a top flight college starter. But, aside from Peterson, the offense is not the strength of Oklahoma. Bob Stoops is an old school defensive coach and his 2006 defense may be his best since Oklahoma won the national title. Seniors Rufus Alexander and Larry Birdine are all America caliber players who should consistently dominate for the Sooners. Add CJ Ah You, Zach Latimer, and DJ Wolfe, and you can get the picture that this will not be a fun team to face in 2006.
While the personnel may be in place for another title run in 2006, the schedule is not. All four of the Sooners' toughest games are away from Norman: at Oregon, at Texas A & M, at Oklahoma State, and in Dallas against Texas. That's the bad news. The good news is that, but for Texas, none of these teams should be in the top 25 by the end of the season. Oregon should prove the toughest test, but the Sooners were able to beat them in the Holiday Bowl last season and have only gotten better. After being embarrassed in the Red River Shooutout last season, and then watching the UT band play "The Eyes of Texas" while Vince Young held the national title trophy, Oklahoma should be burning for their showdown with Texas in 2006. Adrian Peterson wasn't healthy for the game last season, if he is in 2006, the Sooners will probably be favored.
#8 - Miami
If it's possible, I think Miami is being a little bit underrated this season. Though they may not have some of the explosive athletes on offense as in years past, Miami has as much talent as any team in America. The Hurricane's season will really come down to 2 things: (i) how healthy is Tyrone Moss, and (2) whether Kyle Wright can develop into a more consistent player. If Moss is healthy he gives the Canes the offensive gamebreaker they lacked last season, and instantly becomes one of the top 5 backs in the country. As for Wright, he showed a lot of promise in his first season as a starter. He has a live arm, and showed he can be productive at times. In WR Ryan Moore, and "the next big thing" TE Greg Olsen, Wright has plenty of options. As usual, though, the strength of Miami will be their defense. They have the best set of safeties in the country in Brandon Meriweather (who I absolutely love as a football player) and Kenny Phillips. Add NFL quality lineman Baraka Atkins and Bryan Pata, and Canes should give up very few points once again.
Playing in the ACC, Miami has a very tough schedule, and that was before they signed on the play Louisville at Louisville. The good thing for Miami is that aside from their trip to Kentucky, they get Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech all at home, and should be favored in all three games. If Miami can somehow beat Louisville (which it's clear I don't think is going to happen), they will have the opportunity to hold serve at the Orange Bowl and play for a national title.
#9 - FSU
Like Miami, Florida State will get the opportunity to prove that the reports of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. Unfortunately, since both teams' opportunity comes when they meet at the Orange Bowl on Sept. 4, only one will be able to prove the pundits wrong. To me, FSU looks like Miami's doppelganger. They are loaded on offense (whereas Miami is loaded on defense), but inexperienced on defense (whereas Miami is inexperienced on offense). Personally, I believe in Sophomore Drew Weatherford. He has the chops to be an excellent college passer, but more importantly he has the teammates. RB Lorenzo Booker steps into the lead role for the departed Leon Washington and should be as good running the ball while also adding something to the passing game. Weatherford also finds himself throwing to perhaps the most talented trio of WR in the nation in Greg Carr, Chris Davis and De'Cody Fagg. On the flip side, the FSU defense was hit hard by graduation. Losing Brod Bunkley, Ernie Sims, AJ Nicholson, and Antonio Cromartie represents an extreme exodus of talent. LB Buster Davis is a stud, as is DT Andre Fluellen. But for the most part, FSU will be relying on guys like Freshman Myron Rolle and Sophomore Tony Carter to get the ball back.
Florida State catches a break in that they play their toughest game of the year in week 1 at Miami. This gives them an opportunity to get extra preparation (which will be critical for the young players). Also, even if they lose, it gives the team ample time to climb back into the BCS picture. Outside of that game, the schedule is very favorable as FSU gets Clemson, BC and Florida all in Tallahassee.
#10 - California
It pains me to put Cal so low on this list because I have so much respect for Jeff Tedford, and I truly believe they are the most talented offense in the country (even more so than Notre Dame). RB Marshawn Lynch is the best back in the country not named Peterson, and Justin Forsett may also be in the top 5. QB Nate Longshore is unproven, but come on, we all know there is no better QB guru in the world than Tedford (See Rodgers, Aaron; Harrington, Joey; Smith, Akili). Add last season's #1 overall recruit Desean Jackson and Cal has an offense to rival anyone's.
That said, they have a very difficult schedule. As I have said already, I believe the Pac-10 is the most difficult conference in the nation this year, top to bottom. So much so that games against Arizona State, and at Washington State don't even make their top 4 toughest games. I may be giving Arizona too much credit, but I believe playing at Arizona is one of Cal's toughest games, although they should be favored going into Tuscon. Cal should also be favored when they travel across the country to play Tennessee, although the next easy game at Knoxville will be the first. I sincerely hope that Cal can somehow navigate their Pac-10 season undefeated until Nov. 11 when they head to USC as the last team to beat the Trojans on their turf. If both teams enter that game undefeated, the winner could find themselves playing for a national title.
Just Missed:
Clemson - I love this team to be a big time sleeper this season. They have top 10 talent but road games at BC, Florida State and Virginia Tech are just too much to overcome.
Nebraska - Again, I love what Bill Callahan has done, and they should take the weak Big 12 North. However they look like they are a year away, especially with games at USC, at Oklahoma State, and at Texas A & M.
Georgia - Will probably start the season 8-0, raising hopes in Athens, before dropping at least 2 of their last 4 which includes visits from Florida and Georgia Tech, and a trip to Auburn.
Michigan - Talented team, but I would be surprised if they didn't drop at least two of their three road games at Notre Dame, Penn St., and Ohio State.
Not Even Close:
Texas - Possibly the toughest 4 games of anyone in the country: Ohio State at home, Oklahoma in Dallas, at Nebraska, and at Texas Tech. And losing VY hurts a little bit too.
LSU - At Auburn, at Florida, and at Tennessee. They also didn't do themselves any favors by scheduling the always tough Pat Hill coached Fresno State Bulldogs.
Florida - At Auburn, at Florida State, at Georgia, and LSU at home. For a soft team to begin with this looks like way too much to overcome. Seeing as they also go to Tennessee, and get Alabama and South Carolina in Gainesville, this looks like a 6-5 team to me.
Both Donny and I played football together in high school, side by side in both the offensive and defensive trenches. Donny played for a year in college, while I have pursued a coaching career on the high school level for the past three seasons. In a word, there are few people in New England not named Belichick who know more about the game than I do. In the past 6 years have attended countless games, broken down days worth of game film, and have more blue books filled with offensive and defensive schemes than I know what to do with. If I may be as bold as I am arrogant, listen to what I have to say about the game. I know what I am talking about.
While I would never even dream of missing a Patriots game, as the title of this post indicates I love college football (323 references the number of wins for Bear Bryant, the greatest football coach of all time). What follows is my first attempt at a preseason top 10. However, it would be somewhat inaccurate to describe what follows as a true preseason poll as the teams are not ranked in order of skill, potential, or dominance, but rather in the order that I believe represents the likelihood each team possesses of making it to the championship game.
Methodology: So how did I come up with this rather unorthodox looking preseason top 10? And what does it mean? Well, as I explained earlier, the following poll lists the teams, in order, that possess the best chance of making it to the championship game. While many factors went into the equation that produced this list, essentially it can be boiled down to the reconciliation of a team's talent against its schedule.
Step #1 - I chose the 20 teams who are realistically in the discussion for the national championship this season. All of these teams came from the BCS conferences, because, frankly, as much as I love Fresno State, Boise State, and everyone from the MAC (by far my favorite college conference), those teams do not have a realistic opportunity to play for the BCS championship.
Step #2 - Based on a 12 game season, I flat out gave each of these 20 teams 8 wins over their 8 weakest opponents. This 8-0 record (7-0 for teams who only play 11 games) represents the best-case scenario for a team with national title aspirations. Basically, it assumes that each of these 20 teams is not going to lose a game that they are supposed to win. Now I concede that this is an imperfect science, but this list is all about comparative chances and not mathematical precision.
Step #3 - I determined the 4 most difficult opponents for each of the 20 teams based on four factors: (1) the strength of the opponent's returning players, (2) the strength of the opponent's recruiting class and/or transfers, (3) where the game is going to be played, and (4) any significant history between the two teams.
Step #4 - I made a list with each of the 20 teams in one column, and their 4 toughest opponents in an adjacent column. I then used process of elimination to divide the 20 teams into 4 categories: national title contenders who could realistically go undefeated, national title contenders despite the fact that they are likely to lose 1 game, teams that are likely to lose more than 1 game, and pretenders.
Step #5 - I arranged the teams in each category in the order which I believe best represents their preseason chances of going to the national championship game. This determination was based on the relative skill and talent of each team, and the relative difficulty of their 4 toughest games. Voila, a preseason top 10 that is likely to look different than any you have seen so far.
#1 - Auburn
Someone upstairs loves Auburn. The Tigers return a core group of players led by a potential All-SEC backfield comprising of Kenny Irons and Brandon Cox (one of the more underrated signal callers in the conference, if not the country). Though Auburn was hurt some by graduation and defection to the NFL, they return their two best offensive weapons, and their two best defensive players in converted safety Will Herring and CB David Irons.
What vaults this team into the top spot, though, is a schedule that has seemingly been touched by the hand of God. Of their 4 toughest opponents, the three best teams (LSU, Florida, and Georgia) have to travel to Auburn, and the games are spread out with at least two weeks in between each of these contests. The only difficult road game Auburn has this season will be the finale against Alabama in the Iron Bowl. While this game is always a war, this is not the magical Alabama team of last year. Auburn has the talent to dominate the Crimson Tide, and will be especially amped for the game if they enter it 11-0. Two games to watch out for: the opener against a strong Washington State team (although after losing the opener a season ago, my money is on Auburn demolishing the Cougars), and their Oct. 7 date with Arkansas (who is an SEC sleeper) which has the look of an obvious trap game the week before Florida comes to town. Tommy Tubberville has proven that he is one of the best in the business, and I say he has his troops ready each week.
#2 - Louisville
Another surprising selection, but perhaps they shouldn't be given their talent, conference, and schedule this season. Assuming star QB Brian Brohm is healthy, the Cardinals boast three of the best at their positions in all of college football in Brohm, RB Michael Bush, and most importantly head coach Bobby Petrino (who is, along with Dan Hawkins and Rich Rodriguez, one of the finest offensive minds in the college game today). Though the defense is not star studded, they always seem to get their explosive offense the ball just enough to win.
Like Auburn, Louisville has an amazingly favorable schedule. Of their four toughest games, only two are on the road: at Syracuse (a very poor team whose presence on the list of Lousiville's toughest games speaks to the decline of the Big East), and at Pittsburgh (who is maddeningly inconsistent). Home dates against clearly the two best teams they play all season, Miami (Sept. 16) and West Virginia (Nov. 2), will determine if Lousiville takes the next step towards becoming a national power. Louisville played inspired football at the Orange Bowl last season, serving notice that they would not be intimidated by Miami. The smart money is on Brohm and Co. taking care of Miami in Kentucky, setting the stage for a battle of unbeatens, and a possible spot in the national title game, when a very strong West Virginia team comes to town Nov. 2. Louisville gets the nod playing on its home turf.
#3 - USC
While it seems almost impossible to rank USC so high based on the amount of talent they lost to the NFL draft, it is even more impossible to think about how much talent they still have on this team. They still boast the best receiving duo in the nation in Dwayne Jarrett (who looks like a #1 overall pick if ever I saw one), and Steve Smith. The much-maligned defense should be much stronger this year with double digit sack man Lawrence Jackson, and as young and talented a LB corpse as there is in the country led by super Soph Rey Maualuga. While the loss of all of their backfield could potentially derail this dynasty, both John David Booty and Matt Sanchez were former #1 overall recruits (!!!!), so they clearly have the ability to succeed. The development of whichever one wins the starting QB battle will determine just how far USC falls this season (if at all).
Thanks to what appears to be a loaded Pac-10 this year, USC's schedule is by no means easy (road games at much improved Arizona, Washington State and Stanford will be a chore). It is, however, favorable in that their the two toughest opponents, Notre Dame and California, have to travel to the land of Troy. Even though ND and Cal represent two of the most offensively talented teams in the country, I have to believe that USC will be favored to win both of them based on their defensive superiority. Their other two toughest games, Nebraska at home and at UCLA, are tremendous steps down in terms of competition. Though I loved what Nebraska was able to do in the second half of last season, they are not ready to step on the field with the athletes USC can throw at them quite yet. Ditto for UCLA who appears to be heading backwards already, after a surprising 2005 season (although BYU transfer Ben Olson may be the most highly sought after QB by NFL teams by the end of the season). One other game that USC needs to watch out for: their opener at Arkansas. Houston Nutt is a fantastic coach and I think Arkansas could be a real sleeper in the SEC. Given that USC will be traveling across the country, and playing their first game in three seasons without Matt Leinart, it could have the making for an early season shocker.
#4 - West Virginia
A second Big East team in the top 4, how can that be? Well, it's easy. If the chips fall as they should and Louisville holds serve against Miami, they will meet on Nov. 2 for the Big East title and a shot at a national championship. While West Virginia's schedule is a joke, their team is far from one. RB Steve Slaton and QB Pat White form an explosive backfield, both capable of taking it to the house from anywhere on the field. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has installed the perfect offense for these two playmakers, and they should be even better with another year under their belts. The real question is going to be whether White can throw the ball more consistently if teams stack the line against Slaton. Sadly, save for their games against Louisville and maybe Pittsburgh, it won't matter.
There is no doubt that WVA has the easiest road to the BCS of any contending team. That said, its not as if there aren't landmines along the way (hence their #4 ranking). Aside from their trip to Louisville (where they will not be favored), WVA has to travel over 200 miles north to play a much improved UConn team (with a great coach who will be ready for them) and travel to Pittsburgh for their rivalry game known as "The Backyard Brawl." While WVA will be favored in both, the Mountaineers aren't balanced enough on either side of the ball to overcome a sub par performance on the road.
#5 - Notre Dame
While fifth might seem awful low for Notre Dame, to be honest I was hesitant to even rank them this high. Yes 2005 was a wonderful season for Notre Dame. And yes Charlie Weis is a great coach who has seemed to turn this program around. And yes they have the best offense on paper in the country. But for all the ballyhoo surrounding Notre Dame's "resurrection" last year, I find it interesting that they only beat one team of consequence the entire season (Michigan). In fact, Notre Dame received more accolades for almost beating USC than they did for any single win the entire season. I just wonder how well they will fare with a much tougher 2006 schedule.
All that said, the Irish offense is stacked. Brady Quinn is hands down the best QB in the country, and Jeff Samardzjia has transformed himself from a third or fourth college wideout into a top 10 NFL pick. Though they lost Marice Stovall to the NFL, many believe that his replacement, Rhema McKnight (who was actually starting over Samardzjia before getting hurt last season), may actually be a better natural receiver. While there is no arguing that the offense will put up world class numbers, I fail to see any improvement in a defense that was consistently outclassed last season, especially in the secondary. Safety Tom Zbikowski is a great player, but he is at his best near the line of scrimmage making tackles. The bottom line is that the Irish defense doesn't have anyone that can cover. They were torched last season by mediocre passing offenses such as Michigan State (44 pts), Ohio State (34 pts), and Stanford (31 pts). At some point, this defense is going to need to make some plays and I am not certain they can consistently do it.
As I referenced earlier, the Irish schedule is significantly more difficult this year. Two of their four toughest games require trips to teams that beat them last season (Michigan State and USC). While Notre Dame will probably be favored against the Spartans, Michigan State always seems to play up to (and down to) the level of their opponents. When the Irish travel to East Lansing they will be coming off a brutal opening schedule which includes home games against their other 2 toughest opponents: Penn State and Michigan (though they get both of them at home), and a season opening trip to Georgia Tech (who happen to have the best WR in the country not playing for the Irish in Calvin Johnson to test their secondary early and often). Add creative Michigan State QB Drew Stanton to the mix and that game has the makings of a potential shocker early in the season. If the Irish somehow manage to get through their early schedule without a loss, their finale at USC still looms. I cannot foresee any circumstances where Notre Dame would be favored in that game, although if they are playing for an undefeated season and a chance at the national title I wouldn't bet against them. Overall, Notre Dame just has too many difficult road games to be considered as a team likely to go undefeated.
#6 - Ohio State
Ohio State is in a nearly identical situation to Notre Dame. They possess all the talent in the world, but have as tough a schedule as you can find. Offensively, the Buckeyes look imposing. Troy Smith became a bonafide heisman contender last season, and Ted Ginn Jr. finally realized that he plays for a division 1A powerhouse. That said, 5 games does not a career make, and neither Smith nor Ginn have the pedigree that guys like Quinn and Samardzjia have. This could be troubling for Ohio State because they will need those guys to be dominant every game. The defense was decimated by graduation, especially to the LB corpse. OSU should be typically strong up front with all world DT Quinn Pitcock, but it has been four years since they played a game without AJ Hawk, and the OSU LB corpse is the most reconstructed unit in the nation. The defense could struggle early.
Like Notre Dame, Ohio State's schedule is murderous. Three of their four toughest games are on the road, including a trip to defending national champion Texas in the second week of the season (at Iowa and at Michigan State being the others). Its true that some guy named Vince Young is gone to the NFL, but Austin is a tough place to play no matter who they are trotting out there, and I would be shocked if OSU was not at least a field goal underdog in that game. The Buckeyes do catch a break, though, getting Michigan at home, but that's one of those rivalry games and it wouldn't be the first time that an undermanned Michigan team ruined Ohio State's season in the last game. Ohio State, like ND, has the ability to win each of those tough road games individually, however it’s hard to imagine that they could play all three without slipping up along the way.
#7 - Oklahoma
How quickly people forget just how good Adrian Peterson is. Taking absolutely nothing away from Brady Quinn, or Troy Smith, or Marshawn Lynch, Peterson is by far the most talented offensive player in the country. He alone is enough to carry Oklahoma into the top 10. However, Oklahoma is set up for a very nice bounce back season. QB Rhett Bhomar improved steadily over the course of last season, and Peterson's presence should do nothing but aid his development into a top flight college starter. But, aside from Peterson, the offense is not the strength of Oklahoma. Bob Stoops is an old school defensive coach and his 2006 defense may be his best since Oklahoma won the national title. Seniors Rufus Alexander and Larry Birdine are all America caliber players who should consistently dominate for the Sooners. Add CJ Ah You, Zach Latimer, and DJ Wolfe, and you can get the picture that this will not be a fun team to face in 2006.
While the personnel may be in place for another title run in 2006, the schedule is not. All four of the Sooners' toughest games are away from Norman: at Oregon, at Texas A & M, at Oklahoma State, and in Dallas against Texas. That's the bad news. The good news is that, but for Texas, none of these teams should be in the top 25 by the end of the season. Oregon should prove the toughest test, but the Sooners were able to beat them in the Holiday Bowl last season and have only gotten better. After being embarrassed in the Red River Shooutout last season, and then watching the UT band play "The Eyes of Texas" while Vince Young held the national title trophy, Oklahoma should be burning for their showdown with Texas in 2006. Adrian Peterson wasn't healthy for the game last season, if he is in 2006, the Sooners will probably be favored.
#8 - Miami
If it's possible, I think Miami is being a little bit underrated this season. Though they may not have some of the explosive athletes on offense as in years past, Miami has as much talent as any team in America. The Hurricane's season will really come down to 2 things: (i) how healthy is Tyrone Moss, and (2) whether Kyle Wright can develop into a more consistent player. If Moss is healthy he gives the Canes the offensive gamebreaker they lacked last season, and instantly becomes one of the top 5 backs in the country. As for Wright, he showed a lot of promise in his first season as a starter. He has a live arm, and showed he can be productive at times. In WR Ryan Moore, and "the next big thing" TE Greg Olsen, Wright has plenty of options. As usual, though, the strength of Miami will be their defense. They have the best set of safeties in the country in Brandon Meriweather (who I absolutely love as a football player) and Kenny Phillips. Add NFL quality lineman Baraka Atkins and Bryan Pata, and Canes should give up very few points once again.
Playing in the ACC, Miami has a very tough schedule, and that was before they signed on the play Louisville at Louisville. The good thing for Miami is that aside from their trip to Kentucky, they get Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech all at home, and should be favored in all three games. If Miami can somehow beat Louisville (which it's clear I don't think is going to happen), they will have the opportunity to hold serve at the Orange Bowl and play for a national title.
#9 - FSU
Like Miami, Florida State will get the opportunity to prove that the reports of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. Unfortunately, since both teams' opportunity comes when they meet at the Orange Bowl on Sept. 4, only one will be able to prove the pundits wrong. To me, FSU looks like Miami's doppelganger. They are loaded on offense (whereas Miami is loaded on defense), but inexperienced on defense (whereas Miami is inexperienced on offense). Personally, I believe in Sophomore Drew Weatherford. He has the chops to be an excellent college passer, but more importantly he has the teammates. RB Lorenzo Booker steps into the lead role for the departed Leon Washington and should be as good running the ball while also adding something to the passing game. Weatherford also finds himself throwing to perhaps the most talented trio of WR in the nation in Greg Carr, Chris Davis and De'Cody Fagg. On the flip side, the FSU defense was hit hard by graduation. Losing Brod Bunkley, Ernie Sims, AJ Nicholson, and Antonio Cromartie represents an extreme exodus of talent. LB Buster Davis is a stud, as is DT Andre Fluellen. But for the most part, FSU will be relying on guys like Freshman Myron Rolle and Sophomore Tony Carter to get the ball back.
Florida State catches a break in that they play their toughest game of the year in week 1 at Miami. This gives them an opportunity to get extra preparation (which will be critical for the young players). Also, even if they lose, it gives the team ample time to climb back into the BCS picture. Outside of that game, the schedule is very favorable as FSU gets Clemson, BC and Florida all in Tallahassee.
#10 - California
It pains me to put Cal so low on this list because I have so much respect for Jeff Tedford, and I truly believe they are the most talented offense in the country (even more so than Notre Dame). RB Marshawn Lynch is the best back in the country not named Peterson, and Justin Forsett may also be in the top 5. QB Nate Longshore is unproven, but come on, we all know there is no better QB guru in the world than Tedford (See Rodgers, Aaron; Harrington, Joey; Smith, Akili). Add last season's #1 overall recruit Desean Jackson and Cal has an offense to rival anyone's.
That said, they have a very difficult schedule. As I have said already, I believe the Pac-10 is the most difficult conference in the nation this year, top to bottom. So much so that games against Arizona State, and at Washington State don't even make their top 4 toughest games. I may be giving Arizona too much credit, but I believe playing at Arizona is one of Cal's toughest games, although they should be favored going into Tuscon. Cal should also be favored when they travel across the country to play Tennessee, although the next easy game at Knoxville will be the first. I sincerely hope that Cal can somehow navigate their Pac-10 season undefeated until Nov. 11 when they head to USC as the last team to beat the Trojans on their turf. If both teams enter that game undefeated, the winner could find themselves playing for a national title.
Just Missed:
Clemson - I love this team to be a big time sleeper this season. They have top 10 talent but road games at BC, Florida State and Virginia Tech are just too much to overcome.
Nebraska - Again, I love what Bill Callahan has done, and they should take the weak Big 12 North. However they look like they are a year away, especially with games at USC, at Oklahoma State, and at Texas A & M.
Georgia - Will probably start the season 8-0, raising hopes in Athens, before dropping at least 2 of their last 4 which includes visits from Florida and Georgia Tech, and a trip to Auburn.
Michigan - Talented team, but I would be surprised if they didn't drop at least two of their three road games at Notre Dame, Penn St., and Ohio State.
Not Even Close:
Texas - Possibly the toughest 4 games of anyone in the country: Ohio State at home, Oklahoma in Dallas, at Nebraska, and at Texas Tech. And losing VY hurts a little bit too.
LSU - At Auburn, at Florida, and at Tennessee. They also didn't do themselves any favors by scheduling the always tough Pat Hill coached Fresno State Bulldogs.
Florida - At Auburn, at Florida State, at Georgia, and LSU at home. For a soft team to begin with this looks like way too much to overcome. Seeing as they also go to Tennessee, and get Alabama and South Carolina in Gainesville, this looks like a 6-5 team to me.
Friday, July 21, 2006
Hot to Trot?..........not
Is it time for the Red Sox to trade Trot Nixon? The mere utterance of this question is often perceived as sacrilegious by most Red Sox fans who worship the longtime right fielder. Trot Nixon has endeared himself to an entire generation of Sox fans with his hard-nosed performance and blue-collar approach to the game since he came up to the big club in what seems like a lifetime ago. He was a leader on Boston's first championship team in nearly a century, and has vocally commanded the clubhouse since the departure of Mo Vaughn. Boston, as blue collar a city as one will find, has been lucky to have Trot Nixon, and Trot, himself, should be proud that he was able to win over the fans in a city where baseball is paramount to family, friends, and often times, God.
That said, there comes a time when even such a perfect match runs its course, and parting ways becomes more beneficial to one side than continuing the relationship. While it may sound strange to argue that a team considered by many as a World Series favorite should be a "seller" at the upcoming trade deadline, it is my contention that the Red Sox are in the unique position of being able to improve their team for both the present and the future by trading away a single player now.
Trot's Impending Free Agency
Although I could, and would, contend that the Red Sox should trade Trot Nixon regardless of his contract situation, the fact that he is a free agent at the end of this year certainly weighs heavily in favor of a move. Currently Nixon makes 7.5 million per season, which is about market value for a player of his skill set. However, entering the unrestricted free agent market, Nixon stands to make at least that much money over the next 3-4 seasons. As I will discuss later, his overall performance has declined to the point where he is no longer worth this money. However, there are plenty of teams out there who would gladly pony up that kind of cash for a player with Nixon's demeanor and credentials. The Tigers are a team that immediately comes to mind because not only would Nixon improve their team, but he is a likeable player who ownership could easily market to the blue collar city of Detroit. The point is that if the Sox let Nixon go to free agency, there inevitably be a team willing to give him more money than they are, and they risk losing him for nothing.
Trot's Aforementioned Decline in Production
On it's face value, Nixon appears to be having one of his finer statistical seasons in 2006. His line of .302 (avg), .405 (OBP), and .435 (SLG) appears to illustrate a fairly productive player. In fact I was surprised when I contemplated his stat line, because I have watched every game this season and always felt that Trot was underperforming. When I delved deeper into the statistics, I discovered that my gut was right, and that his stats are incredibly misleading.
First and foremost, Trot Nixon's stats do have a weak link in his low slugging percentage so it seems prudent to start here. A .435 slugging percentage is below average for a corner outfielder and falls way below Nixon's career percentage of .484. Even more horrifying was the revelation that since 2003 (Nixon's career season) his slugging percentage has dropped in each successive year including 2006. This trend evidences the fact that Nixon has lost a substantial portion of his power and is becoming purely a singles hitter (if he hasn't already). Along these same lines, it is worth noting Nixon's sharp decline in extra base hits. This season only 26 of his hits have been for extra bases, with only 6 of them being HR. This means that in his 285 AB's in 2006, only roughly 9% of them end in an extra base hit. For a point of comparison, the trio of Aaron Rowand (10%), Juan Uribe (9.8%), and Orlando Cabrera (9.7%) are all outperforming Trot while playing more defensively demanding positions. Nixon's numbers would be even worse if he didn't play in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball. In fact, Fenway Park has saved Nixon as he is hitting .375 (avg), .430 (OBP), and .483 (SLG) at home, as compared to .267, .392, and .406 on the road. If not for Fenway, Trot might find his OPS under .800 on the season.
While that speaks to his power drain, what about his ability to get on base? It's true that Nixon has a very robust OBP this season, thanks in large part to an impressive 47:36 BB:K ratio. Even on the road he has gotten on based nearly 40% of the time. While these facts are indisputable, there are certain quirks contained in them that reduce Trot's overall value. While OBP is a critical statistic (the critical statistic in my opinion), there are several factors that determine whether a high OBP turns into run production. The most important factor is the situation in which the player gets on base (obviously a man reaching base with 0 outs has a better opportunity to score than a man reaching base with 2 outs). Given Trot's superb OBP numbers, one would expect that he would be an ideal player to lead off an inning for the Red Sox. However, in that situation Nixon's OBP drops by nearly 20 points (to .388), and his already borderline SLG percentage drops to an anemic .345. While .388 is still an outstanding OBP, these stats indicate that Nixon has been at his worst when put in the best position to get on base and score (0 outs). His .345 SLG indicates that when he does get on base, its only to first base, which drastically reduces the chance for run production (a leadoff double, for example, can score on two consecutive outs whereas a leadoff single/walk requires at least one hit to score). Really, Nixon has put up most of his numbers in the worst possible situation: nobody on and 1 or 2 outs (the chances of scoring in this situation are extremely low because it requires additional hits without making outs). In that situation Nixon's numbers appear Ruthian: .372 (avg), .462 (OBP), and .525 (SLG). While I do not intend to take anything away from these fantastic numbers, they do serve to skew his overall stats and lead an observer to believe he has been better and creating runs than he has in reality.
The Presence of Wily Mo Pena
While the previous arguments serve to lay a rather convincing foundation, the presence of Wily Mo Pena on the Red Sox roster should be the determinative factor. The Red Sox invested quite a bit in Wily Mo (trading away Bronson Arroyo), and I doubt they did so for him to be a 4th OF. Given the landscape of the Red Sox OF, right field appears to be the only spot available for Wily Mo to get regular AB's in the near future (Manny isn't going anywhere, and the Sox paid handsomely to acquire Crisp as well). While many fans may agree that Wily Mo's presence, more than anything, should be the determining factor in the Sox not resigning Nixon at the end of the season, why should the Sox wait? Taking into account the previous arguments documenting Nixon's offensive deficiencies, I contend that the Red Sox would be a better team right now with Wily Mo in the lineup than with Trot. In limited action this season, Wily Mo has put up a line of .330 (avg), .382 (OBP), and .496, besting Trot in every category except OBP. If we look at Wily Mo's splits, inserting him into the lineup looks even better. Trot is so clueless against left handed pitching that I need not waste words comparing the two in that situation. However, Wily Mo annihilates Nixon even against right-handers. Wily Mo has put up an other-worldly line of .412, .447, and .618 against right handed pitching this season, as compared with Nixon's .332, .425, .467. While Pena clearly would not maintain those numbers over a full season, they indicate enough of an ability to at least approximate Nixon's numbers while besting him in other areas (power, against lefties, etc.). Situationally Pena has proven Trot's superior as well hitting .409, .480, and .500 leading off an inning. He has even obliterated Trot's numbers with nobody on and 1 or 2 outs (not that it matters) by putting up a line of .375, .412, and .688 while scoring 3 runs (1 more than Nixon) in half of the at bats.
So given all of this evidence, the million dollar question becomes (1) whether Theo could get value for Trot, and (2) whether he'd have the guts to trade away one of the team's most popular home grown players. While the first question remains unanswered, Theo proved he has the proverbial cajones to pull the trigger on this exact move by trading away the equally revered and home grown Nomar Garciaparra while his team was on its way towards winning its first World Series since 1918. If the value is there, Theo should be listening.
That said, there comes a time when even such a perfect match runs its course, and parting ways becomes more beneficial to one side than continuing the relationship. While it may sound strange to argue that a team considered by many as a World Series favorite should be a "seller" at the upcoming trade deadline, it is my contention that the Red Sox are in the unique position of being able to improve their team for both the present and the future by trading away a single player now.
Trot's Impending Free Agency
Although I could, and would, contend that the Red Sox should trade Trot Nixon regardless of his contract situation, the fact that he is a free agent at the end of this year certainly weighs heavily in favor of a move. Currently Nixon makes 7.5 million per season, which is about market value for a player of his skill set. However, entering the unrestricted free agent market, Nixon stands to make at least that much money over the next 3-4 seasons. As I will discuss later, his overall performance has declined to the point where he is no longer worth this money. However, there are plenty of teams out there who would gladly pony up that kind of cash for a player with Nixon's demeanor and credentials. The Tigers are a team that immediately comes to mind because not only would Nixon improve their team, but he is a likeable player who ownership could easily market to the blue collar city of Detroit. The point is that if the Sox let Nixon go to free agency, there inevitably be a team willing to give him more money than they are, and they risk losing him for nothing.
Trot's Aforementioned Decline in Production
On it's face value, Nixon appears to be having one of his finer statistical seasons in 2006. His line of .302 (avg), .405 (OBP), and .435 (SLG) appears to illustrate a fairly productive player. In fact I was surprised when I contemplated his stat line, because I have watched every game this season and always felt that Trot was underperforming. When I delved deeper into the statistics, I discovered that my gut was right, and that his stats are incredibly misleading.
First and foremost, Trot Nixon's stats do have a weak link in his low slugging percentage so it seems prudent to start here. A .435 slugging percentage is below average for a corner outfielder and falls way below Nixon's career percentage of .484. Even more horrifying was the revelation that since 2003 (Nixon's career season) his slugging percentage has dropped in each successive year including 2006. This trend evidences the fact that Nixon has lost a substantial portion of his power and is becoming purely a singles hitter (if he hasn't already). Along these same lines, it is worth noting Nixon's sharp decline in extra base hits. This season only 26 of his hits have been for extra bases, with only 6 of them being HR. This means that in his 285 AB's in 2006, only roughly 9% of them end in an extra base hit. For a point of comparison, the trio of Aaron Rowand (10%), Juan Uribe (9.8%), and Orlando Cabrera (9.7%) are all outperforming Trot while playing more defensively demanding positions. Nixon's numbers would be even worse if he didn't play in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball. In fact, Fenway Park has saved Nixon as he is hitting .375 (avg), .430 (OBP), and .483 (SLG) at home, as compared to .267, .392, and .406 on the road. If not for Fenway, Trot might find his OPS under .800 on the season.
While that speaks to his power drain, what about his ability to get on base? It's true that Nixon has a very robust OBP this season, thanks in large part to an impressive 47:36 BB:K ratio. Even on the road he has gotten on based nearly 40% of the time. While these facts are indisputable, there are certain quirks contained in them that reduce Trot's overall value. While OBP is a critical statistic (the critical statistic in my opinion), there are several factors that determine whether a high OBP turns into run production. The most important factor is the situation in which the player gets on base (obviously a man reaching base with 0 outs has a better opportunity to score than a man reaching base with 2 outs). Given Trot's superb OBP numbers, one would expect that he would be an ideal player to lead off an inning for the Red Sox. However, in that situation Nixon's OBP drops by nearly 20 points (to .388), and his already borderline SLG percentage drops to an anemic .345. While .388 is still an outstanding OBP, these stats indicate that Nixon has been at his worst when put in the best position to get on base and score (0 outs). His .345 SLG indicates that when he does get on base, its only to first base, which drastically reduces the chance for run production (a leadoff double, for example, can score on two consecutive outs whereas a leadoff single/walk requires at least one hit to score). Really, Nixon has put up most of his numbers in the worst possible situation: nobody on and 1 or 2 outs (the chances of scoring in this situation are extremely low because it requires additional hits without making outs). In that situation Nixon's numbers appear Ruthian: .372 (avg), .462 (OBP), and .525 (SLG). While I do not intend to take anything away from these fantastic numbers, they do serve to skew his overall stats and lead an observer to believe he has been better and creating runs than he has in reality.
The Presence of Wily Mo Pena
While the previous arguments serve to lay a rather convincing foundation, the presence of Wily Mo Pena on the Red Sox roster should be the determinative factor. The Red Sox invested quite a bit in Wily Mo (trading away Bronson Arroyo), and I doubt they did so for him to be a 4th OF. Given the landscape of the Red Sox OF, right field appears to be the only spot available for Wily Mo to get regular AB's in the near future (Manny isn't going anywhere, and the Sox paid handsomely to acquire Crisp as well). While many fans may agree that Wily Mo's presence, more than anything, should be the determining factor in the Sox not resigning Nixon at the end of the season, why should the Sox wait? Taking into account the previous arguments documenting Nixon's offensive deficiencies, I contend that the Red Sox would be a better team right now with Wily Mo in the lineup than with Trot. In limited action this season, Wily Mo has put up a line of .330 (avg), .382 (OBP), and .496, besting Trot in every category except OBP. If we look at Wily Mo's splits, inserting him into the lineup looks even better. Trot is so clueless against left handed pitching that I need not waste words comparing the two in that situation. However, Wily Mo annihilates Nixon even against right-handers. Wily Mo has put up an other-worldly line of .412, .447, and .618 against right handed pitching this season, as compared with Nixon's .332, .425, .467. While Pena clearly would not maintain those numbers over a full season, they indicate enough of an ability to at least approximate Nixon's numbers while besting him in other areas (power, against lefties, etc.). Situationally Pena has proven Trot's superior as well hitting .409, .480, and .500 leading off an inning. He has even obliterated Trot's numbers with nobody on and 1 or 2 outs (not that it matters) by putting up a line of .375, .412, and .688 while scoring 3 runs (1 more than Nixon) in half of the at bats.
So given all of this evidence, the million dollar question becomes (1) whether Theo could get value for Trot, and (2) whether he'd have the guts to trade away one of the team's most popular home grown players. While the first question remains unanswered, Theo proved he has the proverbial cajones to pull the trigger on this exact move by trading away the equally revered and home grown Nomar Garciaparra while his team was on its way towards winning its first World Series since 1918. If the value is there, Theo should be listening.
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Lebowski Urban Achievers (AL Awards)
"Let me explain something to you. Um, I am not "Mr. Lebowski". You're Mr. Lebowski. I'm the Dude. So that's what you call me. You know, that or, uh, His Dudeness, or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you're notinto the whole brevity thing."
We're not about brevity, as you may be able tell from our first, of what we hope will be many, posts. And like the dude, we know we're fallible, so we welcome any and all commentary and criticisms.......but unlike the Dude let's try and keep it clean.
1) “The Godamm plane has crashed into the mountain!”
2) “I got information man, new sh** has come to light.”
Papelbon – By putting up 25 saves with a .57 ERA and a .74 WHIP in the first half of the season, Paps is on pace to rival ’90 Dennis Eckersley (.61 ERA, .61 WHIP), ’02 Eric Gagne (1.2 ERA, .69 WHIP), and ’03 John Smoltz (1.12 ERA, .87 WHIP) for the best season ever by a closer. Interestingly enough, all four of those players came up to the big leagues as starting pitchers. Their success further emphasizes the importance of developing multiple pitches in the minor leagues, rather than relying on high 90’s hear all of the time (you listening Josh Beckett?). Paps has been so lights out in ninth innings that he has the entire Sox fan base clamoring to keep the heir apparent to Roger Clemens’ thrown in the pen for his entire career.
3) “Fair! Whose the f***ing nihilist here!? What are you, a bunch of f***ing crybabies?”
4) “Donny you’re out of your element.”
To the
Clearly my semi-condemnation of Billy Beane is a bit premature and oversimplified. Technically the “Moneyball theory” commands improving your team by acquiring those skills which are undervalued in the marketplace. With the recent success of the A’s, Red Sox, and Yankees, OBP has become an expensive statistic, often times falling outside of Beane’s budgetary restrictions. Still, the man knows offense better than anyone on the planet, and venturing outside his element has resulted in a regression for his franchise.
To the Boston Red Sox, who are mere months away from having the first ever all Jewish starting outfield. Not unlike George Washington, I cannot tell a lie. When Adam Stern burst onto the major league scene earlier this year a little light bulb went on in my brain and I just waited. I waited for Gabe Kapler to return from the Achilles rupture that ended his 2005 season (he did on June 17). I waited for Tito Francona to give Kevin Youkilis an OF mitt (he did on May 27). Now I must wait just a little bit more. Wait for September callups, and the glorious return of Adam Stern. We are less than two months away from the greatest Jewish sports moment since Shawn Green hit 4 HR in the same game. Folks, it’s going to happen. I can promise you that.
6) “That’s the simple part dude. When we make the handoff, I grab the guy and beat it out of him.”
To the
7) “Fuck it dude, let’s go bowling.”
To David Ortiz. What else could be going through his mind when he consistently sends both teams home from the ballpark with walk off hits? Never has baseball seen a player so consistently come through with the game on the line as David Ortiz has with the Red Sox. Game after game Ortiz rescues the Sox from the brink of certain defeat, or at the very least extra innings. Anyone from
8) “We’re talking about unchecked aggression here.”
To Ozzie Guillen, the living, breathing, walking personification of the need to “think before you speak.” And it’s really too bad because the guy has a lot going for him. He is affable, frank, colorful, and most importantly he brought
9) “I mean ‘Nam was a foot soldiers’ war whereas, uh, this should be a f***ing cakewalk. I mean I had an M16, Jacko, not an Abrams f***ing tank. Just me and Charlie, man, eyeball to eyeball.”
To the bourgeoning Red Sox-Yankees deathmatch; which will mark their fourth in as many years. No matter what happens in the first half of the season, it always seems to come down to one or two games in September between these superpowers. Red Sox-Yankees has evolved into an all encompassing rivalry. It intensified for nearly half a century, reaching a transcendental climax in the 14 ALCS games played between the two teams in 2003 and 2004. Earth’s sun will burn out long before we see another clash of the titans of the magnitude we saw in those two seasons.
As things currently stand a half game separates the teams with nine head-to-head matchups remaining. The teams play a five game set at Fenway in August which should be nothing short of an all-out war. And while its true that the Division race could be decided long before the Sox make their final trip to the Bronx for a four game series in mid-September, the smart money is it all coming down to that final game on Sept. 17. The scheduled matchup for that game: Schilling-Mussina……eyeball to eyeball.
10) “Donny was a good bowler, and a good man. He was. . . He was one of us. He was a man who loved the outdoors, and bowling, and as a surfer explored the beaches of southern
To Kirby Puckett, may he rest in peace. Kirby Puckett was a great baseball player, and an even better humanitarian for the state of
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